Winners in Early Thoughts Last week
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Growing Empire - The Magician, Early Thoughts Mail, Best Around Australia
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Martini Mumma - Best Around Australia
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Cowboys +8.5 - Gerard Daffy
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The Warning Signs
It amazes me how often horses with inconsistent form are at the pointy end of the betting market. These runners can be poor betting prospects and I am sure the bookmakers must line their pockets every time they falter.
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So here are my five warning factors before you put your hard-earned on. Incidentally, runners with every one of these warning signs can be excellent lay prospects on Betfair.
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2. No win in the last four starts and poor overall strike rate … less than 20%
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3. Drifting in the market close to jump time
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4. Raced at distance and yet to win … even better if two or more starts at distance and no wins
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5. Backmarker from an inside gate
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As an example, last Saturday at Eagle Farm, Shezadandi started the $3.10 favourite in Race 2. The horse ran 7th at its previous run and had not won a race in four starts. It had a poor 9% winning strike rate and was going to settle at the back of the field from barrier 2. It got out late to run 3rd , but never looked likely to win.
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Sport Selections
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3-leg Multi
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GWS v Swans either team by under 24.5 points
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NRL - Broncos v Roosters SGM
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Over 40.5 total match points
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Mariner anytime tryscorer
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Racing Selections
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Super Man's and The GM's
Best Around Australia
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Super Man's Place All Up
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Caulfield R10 Chorlton Lane
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Hawkesbury R10 Chilli Filly
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Image credit - Darren Winningham
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Early Thoughts - Top Trials
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Caulfield R2 Mawallock, R10 Bigolino
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Early Thoughts Crew Selections
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2024 Tipping Leaders
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Winno (32% strike rate / 46% return on investment)
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The Shadow (32% strike rate / 42% return on investment)
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Punters Pal (47% strike rate / 7% Return on investment)
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The Magician (44% Return on investment)
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The newsletter is provided for general interest and personal use only and is not to be considered professional advice, endorsement or a recommendation. Read with a sense of humour. Early Thoughts wants you to be in control of your gambling at all times and not allow your gambling to control you. You should ensure that, when making a decision to follow the Early Thoughts selections, you do so in a controlled manner with the key principle to only gamble what you can afford to lose. Members should be aware that betting is a form of gambling which is risky and members can lose their entire bet. Early Thoughts is not responsible for members’ losses and will not provide refunds in respect of gambling monies lost. Early Thoughts does not provide any assurances or guarantees that any of the runners, races and events which have been the subject of selections by Early Thoughts have not been scratched, cancelled, postponed or otherwise varied. In the event that any such runner or event is scratched, cancelled, postponed or varied Early Thoughts accepts no responsibility. Past results cannot be relied upon for future performance. Any person who relies on any information obtained reading this newsletter does so at their own risk and liability. This information may not be reproduced or reused in any way or for any purpose without prior written permission from Early Thoughts. We do not knowingly send information to people under 18 years of age. Early Thoughts encourages responsible gambling at all times.
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If gambling is a problem for you call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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